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The recent murder-suicide by Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher and the mother of his three-month-old child have brought gun control back into the spotlight in the USA. But the real risk of death by firearms is quite low.

Yes, you read that right. The classic stereotype of gun violence is that it mostly takes place in  these especially bad neighborhoods in really big cities. Of course, there is no doubt that gun violence is big cities is a reality. The largest number of gunshot homicides every year occur in American cities of 500,000 or more, for the most simple reason that the largest number of people in the United States live in cities of 500,000 or more. Looking at it statisitcally though, people actually have a much higher risk of dying in another place.

The greatest risk of gunshot homicide, however, as well as the highest rates of gunshot suicide,  surprisingly occur in the most rural reaches of the United States. That's not what you might have expected. Why is it like this, though?

The risk of being murdered by gunshot is twice as high in rural Wyoming as it is in the five boroughs of New York City. The rate of gunshot suicide is three times as high in the rural Delta of Mississippi as it is in the gun-friendly city of Houston.

But what about your personal risk of being in the wrong place at the wrong time anywhere in America? Assuming that you have no desire to kill anyone, including yourself, with a firearm, what can you do and where can you go to stay safe.

First of all, realize that even the worst odds for being a victim of gunshot in the USA are less than 1 in a million on any given day.

Then take into consideration these simple facts about gunshot deaths in the USA:

1. The risk of death by intentional gunshot wound is highest in rural areas of the USA, but the victims of gunshot wounds in rural areas of the USA are almost always known by the shooter.

2. The risk of death by intentional gunshot wounds is lower in big cities than in rural areas, and gun violence is concentrated in specific neighborhoods. If you are told not to go somewhere, don't go there. 

3. The risk of death by intentional gunshot wounds is higher in states with loose gun control laws (such as Arizona and Louisiana) than in states with strict gun control laws (such as New York, Connecticut, and Hawaii). However, states that use criminal background checks to grant licensed for concealed carry (anyone with a permit can carry a concealed weapon almost anywhere) such as Texas have intermediate rates of deaths from gunshot wounds.

If you are concerned about an American friend or family member committing suicide by firearm, it is helpful to know that American men who commit suicide by gunshot usually do so inside their own homes American women who commit suicide by firearm usually do so outside their house or apartment in a location where they are easily found.

And if you are concerned about a child's accidental death while playing with a loaded firearm, do the sensible thing. Keep loaded firearms under lock and key. Always store guns safely.

  • Branas CC, Nance ML, Elliott MR, Richmond TS, Schwab CW. Urban-rural shifts in intentional firearm death: different causes, same results. Am J Public Health. 2004 Oct.94(10):1750-5
  • Wintemute GJ, Claire BE, McHenry V, Wright MA. Epidemiology and clinical aspects of stray bullet shootings in the United States. J Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2012 Jul. 73(1):215-23