Been on the Obese side for quite a while now and i've decided that with school coming up and all i should make a change.

My BMR is apparently 2300 calories a day, with a required 3000 a day to maintain my current weight. I started riding a stationary bike for 2 hours a day 3 days ago (Apparently burns off around 1000 calories a day). Been going pretty well so far. Aswell as decreasing my daily calorie intake to 1500. Been drinking lotssss of water.

What im having trouble understanding though is how much weight i'll lose throughout the 5 weeks, and if i'll be able to lose the 30 (ish) lbs. I won't have a problem changing what i'm doing i just wanna know if i'm doing something wrong, and what else i should be doing in order to reach said goal

Can a 6', 231 lb 16 year old lose 30-ish lbs in 5 weeks?