Predicting Massacres: Warning Signs That Someone Is About To Run Amok

Though the media loves to say that a mass murderer "just snapped", this does not actually happen. Ever. Committing mass murder takes meticulous planning and preparation, including but not limited to the need to obtain the deadly weapon(s) these "psychokillers" will use in their attacks. You've probably heard the phrase "running amok". Wikipedia tells us that we say someone "runs amok" when they, "in the grip of strong emotion, obtain a weapon and begin attacking people indiscriminately, often with multiple fatalities". 

For this to be true, we have to recognize, would-be mass slaughterers would have to remain in that "grip of strong emotion" for a very long time, often many months.

"Running amok", interestingly enough, is a phrase that comes from Malaysia. In Javanese, "amok" means "an episode of sudden mass assault against people or objects usually by a single individual following a period of brooding", and these episodes have been occurring in Malaysia long enough for the deadly phenomenon it have its very own word. The planning phase is critical, because it's at this point that a carnage someone is mulling over in their head can still be prevented.

Gavin de Becker, a leading expert on violence, has devoted two entire books to the idea that criminal acts could be predicted with much more accuracy if only we — meaning the rest of us — actually took the time to look for the warning signs, which he calls "pre-incident indicators", and to react to them. 

OK, OK, there's more to de Becker's books than that. Much more, including the message to trust your intuition, because it can save your life. I highly recommend The Gift of Fear as well as Protecting the Gift. You'll actually have to read them to get the full gist of what he's saying, but he did mention some of the warning signs a student may be violent on his website. The most important of these, I think, can  be summed up as follows:

• Aimlessness and being sullen, angry and depressed. 
• Being preoccupied with guns and weapons, experience with and access to guns, seeking status and self-worth through violence, being chronically angry and threatening violence or suicide.  

Being European, I never understood the American obsession with guns. Surely, regulating gun ownership has a role to play in preventing mass murders too?

In addition, those who go on killing sprees have to actively like the impending consequences of their actions, including the prospect of ending up dead or in prison for the rest of their lives. They want, if you will, to be villain-martyrs in their own war on humanity. Want to find out whether Gavin de Becker is right about being able to predict violent behavior? Just read the "hindsight is 20/20" reports of previous violent behavior in people who go on to commit killing sprees, and his lessons become hard to ignore.

De Becker isn't alone in his mission to raise awareness of pre-incident indicators. Forensic psychiatrist Paul Mullen, another "violent mind" expert, offers some unique insights.

• Western mass killers who "run amok" and kill people until they are either captured or killed themselves are a relatively new phenomenon. The first "mass psychokiller" incident occurred in Germany in the early part of the 20th century. Since then, killing sprees have become increasingly publicized, essentially creating a "cultural script" for "angry, disaffected, desperate young people" to kill themselves in what they may see as (shockingly!) "a blaze of glory".
• The people who commit mass killings are almost all men between the ages of 20 and 40, who are socially isolated. They are also obsessive individuals with rigid mindsets, capable of meticulous planning. As de Becker mentioned, Mullen says they are almost all obsessed with guns, weapons, and anything militaristic. Interestingly enough, Mullen lists "extreme right wing views" as another risk factor. 
• Mullen agrees with de Becker that most people who go on killing sprees are extremely aware of those who have previously committed similar acts, compiling information on violent killers that came before them. Some of them clearly imitate their very own violent, mass-killer idols. (As an example, Mark Chapman who killed John Lennon brought along a copy of Catcher in The Rye to his deadly excursion. John Hinckly, who went on to assassinate President Reagan, and the aforementioned Richard Bardo, did the same thing.)
• Gun control may not put a stop to massacres committed by lone killers, but it does reduce the lethality.
• Would-be mass slaughterers have a certain pattern of internet usage. Coupled with the steps they take to obtain the types of weapons required for mass killings (semi-automatics), this should lead police to pick up on their violent plans, and to pick them up.
• It doesn't matter whether mass killers are psychotic or have anti-social personality disorder or not, at the end of the day. Regardless of any mental diagnoses they may have, those who seek fame through violence are rigid, obsessional people who plan things carefully. Throughout the course of their planning phase, Aspiring killers will inevitably drop hints that should land them in an interrogation room before they ever rob someone of their life.