The Real Risk Of Being Gunned Down In America

The United States is often portrayed as a violent place by the media. After all, almost nowhere else in the world are firearms so readily available to adults (and sometimes even children) from all walks of life, and nowhere else in the developed world do more people die from gunshot wounds than the US.  Despite all this, an individual's risk of dying as the result of the discharge of a firearm in the USA, however, is actually quite low.

In fact, there is not even a one in a million chance of being killed by a stray bullet in any given year when you are simply minding your own business.

Innocent Victims of Gun Violence

Researchers at the University of California at Sacramento analyzed 1.996 news reports filed between February 1, 2008 and February 1, 2009 for information on 284 shootings involving stray bullets, that is bullets that hit people who were not the intended targets.

In these 284 shootings, 317 people (nationwide) were injured, and 65 died. Over 95% of shooters were male, but over 88% of victims were female. Over 60% of shooters were between the ages of 15 and 34, but almost all the victims were girls under the age of 15 or women over the age of 34 — mothers and daughters. Victims of stray bullets seldom die on the spot, but about 85% of those who decease die in a hospital a few hours later.

The hard evidence is that an American has only about a 1 in 5,000,000 chance of being killed by a bullet as an innocent bystander, but that the bystanders who are killed by stray bullets are by most measures especially innocent. Mothers, grandmothers, and daughters are the disproportionate victims of street violence. Deaths by accident, however, are actually very rare. However, deaths by intentional gunshot wound are are a completely different matter.

Intentional Victims of Gun Violence

Even though evidence points to the fact that every death by a stray bullet is tragic, only a few dozen people died of accidental gunshot wounds in the United States every year.  The Deaths of those by intentional gun violence are quite another matter.

In the most recent 11 years for which data has been completely and thoroughly analyzed (1989 through 1999), there were in total a shocking 367,695 deaths by intentional firearm injury. Of these deaths, 200,027 (54.4%) were suicides and 167,668 (45.4%) were homicides. 

These figures translate to an approximately 1 in 24,000 risk of dying from a gunshot wound at the hands of another in the USA in any given year, and approximately a 1 in 7 million chance of dying from a gunshot wound at the hands of another on any given day. While it's not particularly high, it's a lot higher than the unintentional deaths. Where you might see the highest risk of death by a gunshot wound, however, is not at all where most people would expect it to be.

Big Cities Not The Biggest Risk For Gunshot Homicide

Yes, you read that right. The classic stereotype of gun violence is that it mostly takes place in  these especially bad neighborhoods in really big cities. Of course, there is no doubt that gun violence is big cities is a reality. The largest number of gunshot homicides every year occur in American cities of 500,000 or more, for the most simple reason that the largest number of people in the United States live in cities of 500,000 or more. Looking at it statisitcally though, people actually have a much higher risk of dying in another place.

The risk of being murdered by gunshot is twice as high in rural Wyoming as it is in the five boroughs of New York City. The rate of gunshot suicide is three times as high in the rural Delta of Mississippi as it is in the gun-friendly city of Houston.

But what about your personal risk of being in the wrong place at the wrong time anywhere in America? Assuming that you have no desire to kill anyone, including yourself, with a firearm, what can you do and where can you go to stay safe.

First of all, realize that even the worst odds for being a victim of gunshot in the USA are less than 1 in a million on any given day.

Then take into consideration these simple facts about gunshot deaths in the USA:

1. The risk of death by intentional gunshot wound is highest in rural areas of the USA, but the victims of gunshot wounds in rural areas of the USA are almost always known by the shooter.

2. The risk of death by intentional gunshot wounds is lower in big cities than in rural areas, and gun violence is concentrated in specific neighborhoods. If you are told not to go somewhere, don't go there. 

3. The risk of death by intentional gunshot wounds is higher in states with loose gun control laws (such as Arizona and Louisiana) than in states with strict gun control laws (such as New York, Connecticut, and Hawaii). However, states that use criminal background checks to grant licensed for concealed carry (anyone with a permit can carry a concealed weapon almost anywhere) such as Texas have intermediate rates of deaths from gunshot wounds.

If you are concerned about an American friend or family member committing suicide by firearm, it is helpful to know that American men who commit suicide by gunshot usually do so inside their own homes American women who commit suicide by firearm usually do so outside their house or apartment in a location where they are easily found.

And if you are concerned about a child's accidental death while playing with a loaded firearm, do the sensible thing. Keep loaded firearms under lock and key. Always store guns safely.