I made a promise to myself a few years ago that I'd never run a 10K until I knew I could do it in less than 40 minutes. (weird, I know)
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When I could run sub 19 5ks with ease, sub 40 10ks were no big deal either.
I think the best way to do it is to just run one and see where you are. Then you can make adjustments and nail the sub 40 after that. The first attempt at racing 6.2 miles always sucks. It is in between the 5k sprint and a half marathon pacing strategy. You have to haul butt while still managing your pace and effort early on. Compared to a 5k, you have twice as much time to do something stupid.
My first 10k was 51 minutes. I've been sub 38 since. Running sub 40 on your first try is doable, but rawther ambitious.
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X probably has there the closest measuring stick you'll find in that being able to plunk down sub-19 5kms are going to show you're comfortably ready.
And as much as we hate to bring up "intangibles" with serious training questions, I do put some stock in "race day magic" ideas. When I look back at some of my PRs, my 10km being one of them, it was a race where everything clicked. If you call it runner's high or whatever, the day, the legs, the course, the competition, all fell into place for a PR that my second best time isn't even within 30secs of. So if you're in tune with your body and you're getting a 'feeling' that it's time, by all means, search out a race that fits your ideals and go for it :thumbsup:
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JR---I have the same experience for the 10k....36 second PR...and there was something just plain "magical" eventhough I committed the #2 biggest mistake (I conversed for the first half :umno: ).
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