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You can't rely on this for birth control. Your secretions are no protection against the one sperm that may have been in his pre-cum. You also don't know how long it had been since his last orgasm. Maybe he had been jacking off prior to coming over...maybe he came and had sperms live in his urethra.... maybe not. You just can't gamble.
Use protection every time, or else don't do anything. Plus, I don't believe any guy who's interested in you or having sex, would EVER "just forgot a condom". That doesn't ring true. If he can't 'REMEMBER', then he's not the guy for you.
You asked for a percent probability that you might get pregnant from what you've done. It doesn't work that way. It's more like a Yes or No question on whether you're at risk for Pregnancy. And that answer is a solid YES right now.
How likely is it that just two seconds of contact might have done the trick? Low, but still possible.
But you know by now, don't you?
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